@ Rhett – I think you’re right in that the biggest guys in the gym probably don’t know what their genetic limits are. However, I also think that the vast majority of people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to muscle gain which makes them immensely succeptible to marketing for various training programs and supplements. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen “trainee X gained 25 pounds of muscle and lost 8 pounds of fat in 12 weeks!” which absolutely pisses me off.

From a professional standpoint, it also helps me to tell clients how much they can realistically expect within a given time frame.

@ Bret – Why am I not surprised that you had a subscription that had anything to do with the word “Butt”?

So it is great to have an honest look at what you can expect and what is the realm of pure fantasy…………..but by the same token, you never see the biggest and leannest guys go around talking about this stuff. That’s not so say that a guy who isn’t a bodybuilding champ can’t be correct by presenting this stuff, nor is it to say that being big and lean is the end-all, be-all. But it does highlight that for all of the due diligence done by guys like Lyle and Alan, and regardless of how accurate Casey’s calculator may or may not be, success in anything is earned, not calculated (thank you to Scott Abel for that gem).

Granted I don’t think Lyle or Alan would ever claim to be doing anything other than providing a dose of reality for those who truly are in need of one, but the best of the best usually don’t go around trying to calculate this stuff and figure out where they likely will end up.

Personally I would just put faith in solid nutrition habits, hard and consistent work, and recognize that the rate of any type of gains will slow as training age increases (regardless of what that actual rate is). Add in the fact that no adaptation process is linear, and it’s plain to see why I don’t pay much heed to estimations and calculations.

While people are always quick to trot out the “you’re not that special” line, why allow some estimation or calculation to create a mental roadblock between you and your ultimate dream? Plus I think that with experiences comes the type of insight that will enable honest trainees to realize when (and I am borrowing a page from your recent comment on health markers vs. weight loss) their ultimate goal may need re-framing or isn’t 100-percent realistic given their own unique structure and physiology.

So I think that estimating your ultimate potential can be both asset and enemy, and it depends upon the person in question. But I’d prefer to train smartly and consistently, eat in line with my goals, and then allow the physique chips to fall where they may. And if I fall right in line with their estimates, more power to them, but I’ve never known any people with remarkable physiques who bothered attempting to calculate what their ultimate potential was, because they were to busy going out and making it happen.